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- Global growth moderates in 2026 as economies adapt to trade shifts and technological change.
- Digital transformation and AI adoption emerge as key engines of productivity and resilience.
- Regional investment strengthens connectivity across Türkiye and Central Asia.
- SMEs are increasing their digital presence
The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) released Economic Outlook 2026, its annual report identifying the themes that will shape next year’s economic landscape. The report anticipates policy changes that grabbed headlines in 2025 to exert their force on economies around the world throughout 2026. While the acceleration in global fragmentation presents challenges, increasing AI adoption presents opportunities.
According to MEI, global real GDP growth is expected to moderate 3.1% in 2026. With global expansion underpinned by technological adaptation and flexible economies. While trade fragmentation and policy shifts continue to reshape global flows, structural tailwinds — including digital transformation, artificial intelligence and targeted fiscal investment — are supporting economic resilience across regions.
“Looking ahead to 2026, the economic forecast appears broadly favorable, driven in part by ongoing structural reforms. For oil-exporting countries, easing financial conditions will likely stimulate non-oil sectors, as interest rates decrease alongside rate cuts in the US. Reduced borrowing costs and controlled inflation are expected to benefit consumers, spurring demand across key sectors such as real estate, tourism, and retail. There are risks to the outlook however, including geopolitical tensions and climate-related challenges, which may disrupt investment and economic activity,” said Khatija Haque, chief economist, EEMEA, Mastercard Economics Institute.
Azerbaijan: Selected Indicators
Within the broader EEMEA region, including Azerbaijan, continued investment in infrastructure, energy and digital capabilities supports economic resilience and long-term diversification efforts. MEI anticipates Azerbaijan’s GDP to rise by 2.7% in 2026, as stronger non-oil growth offsets lower oil production.
Key findings from the report include:
Digital Transformation and Artificial Intelligence as Growth Enablers
A central theme of the Economic Outlook 2026 is the accelerating role of digital transformation and artificial intelligence as catalysts for productivity and economic growth. Across regions, businesses are moving beyond experimentation toward deeper integration of AI and digital tools into operations, investment planning and service delivery.
To capture AI adoption across the globe, MEI has created the “MEI AI Enthusiasm Index”, which is an aggregate of the country’s global share of AI spend, AI’s share of total software spending and per capita spend on AI tools in key countries. Leveraging Mastercard’s aggregated and anonymized transaction data, MEI identified a significant number of companies in the generative AI space — spanning model providers, chatbots, transcription tools, image and video generators, industry-specific software and AI-driven SaaS platforms — to establish this comparative framework.
Looking ahead to 2026, MEI anticipates that deeper AI integration and targeted fiscal stimulus will be key drivers of global growth. Diverging policy paths and investment priorities may influence inflation dynamics, consumer behavior and monetary policy responses — marking a pivotal moment in the evolving macroeconomic landscape.
Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Agility and Opportunity
MEI emphasizes the critical role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in driving economic dynamism. Globally, SMEs increasingly embrace digital tools and online channels to streamline operations, reduce costs, and compete more effectively in a changing economic landscape.
To succeed, SMEs require strategic agility and digital readiness. Those that are the most flexible and tech forward are likely to be best positioned to accelerate growth. MEI sees an opportunity for SMEs to continue to gain share in tech-driven services. There is a growing demand for local tech solutions and a more specialized offering. This expansion into high-value services suggests that SMEs can compete more effectively in sectors traditionally dominated by larger firms.
Consumer Trends: Value, Technology and Experiences
Consumers worldwide will remain savvy, focusing on international, tech-enabled and value-conscious spending. They will continue to prioritize meaningful moments, such as travel and live events, while remaining price-sensitive for many necessary goods.
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About the Mastercard Economics Institute
Founded in 2020, the Mastercard Economics Institute draws on unique, high-frequency and actionable economic measurement to give leaders in business and government the insights needed to make thoughtful decisions with better outcomes.
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